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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.