🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."